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Pend Oreille Public Utility District to receive $27.3 million for Broadband Network - April 27, 2010

Special congratulations to W2A client Pend Oreille Public Utility District for receiving a federal award of $27, 257,838 to develop a broadband network for underserved areas of Pend Oreille County in northeast Washington State.  The proposed fiber-to-the-premises network would deploy approximately 526 miles of fiber-optic cable to deliver last-mile broadband Internet services and facilitate critical network redundancy in this rural area.  The project plans to offer affordable, high-speed broadband access to as many as 3,200 households, 360 businesses, and 24 community anchor institutions.  Not only will this project enhance broadband capabilities it will play an important role in stimulating economic development and growth in this economically distressed, low-density area of Washington State.  

Thank you to Governor Gregoire and Senator Murray for their help in securing this grant for the people of Pend Oreille County.

Announcement Archive 2009

W2A UPDATE - APRIL 7, 2010

D.C. LEGISLATIVE UPDATE

Congress returned home last week for a two-week recess and the start of the next battle over the recently passed health care reform legislation – defining what the new law means for skeptical voters between now and the November midterm elections.  Congressional Democrats hope this month’s town hall meetings and other public events look absolutely nothing like the heated spectacles of last August, when Sarah Palin’s “death panels” and other claims about the House’s health care bill had many Americans distrustful of the process and confused about the substance of the bill.  Republicans, meanwhile, are pushing a “repeal and replace” strategy.

In addition to selling their new health care law, Democrats will spend a good deal of time this recess talking to constituents about jobs, financial industry reforms, and other popular legislation they plan on advancing promptly upon returning to Capitol Hill in mid-April.  The annual appropriations process, however, probably won’t go much of anywhere until after the election.  Below are our thoughts on these issues, as well as Tony’s Take on the always unpredictable election year politics shaping up in DC and here at home.

HEALTH CARE REFORM

Late on the night of Sunday, March 21st, the House of Representatives approved the sweeping health care overhaul legislation that was passed by the Senate on Christmas Eve. (The Drudge Report’s headline: “A Date Which Will Live in Infirmary.”)  The landmark legislation, which will extend insurance coverage to nearly 32 million people and end insurance company discrimination against people with pre-existing conditions, passed over the unanimous opposition of Republicans.  That same night, the House also passed a package of changes to the Senate health care bill that had previously been negotiated between House and Senate Democratic leaders.  That bill went back to the Senate, was passed days later under the reconciliation process, and the whole thing has now been signed into law by the President – 1,033 days after he first called for action on health care.

While just one month ago the likelihood of passing health care reform seemed dim, a couple of very positive things happened for Democrats just days before the Sunday night vote in the House. First, a handful of Democratic Members who had previously been opposed to the reforms came out in support of the bill.  Second, the Congressional Budget Office released its cost estimates for the bill that showed it would reduce federal budget deficits by $143 billion in the next 10 years, which completely changed the tone of the discussion.  Also that week, a group of Catholic nuns broke from their church’s more conservative group of bishops by endorsing the bill, arguing that it would do nothing that would make abortion more widely available.  And just hours before the vote, Democratic leaders struck a crucial deal with pro-lifers within the party that secured the final votes needed for passage by promising an executive order that federal money could not be used for abortions. 

Some of the law’s provisions will affect Americans almost immediately, for example the requirement that insurers allow dependent children to remain on their parents’ plans up to the age of 26.  But most Americans won’t see many substantive effects of the law for years to come.  The political repercussions of the health care legislation, however, will play out over the next several months, with the biggest test of its political success or failure coming on November 2nd – midterm election day.  Interest groups are already ramping up campaigns to market the new health care law in advance of the election. 

APPROPRIATIONS

In a bit of election year anti-earmark fervor, three weeks ago House Democrats announced a ban on congressionally directed funding in appropriations bills (better known as earmarks) for for-profit entities. In an effort to one-up the ban, House Republicans announced a purity test of their own the next day – no one in the Republican caucus will be requesting ANY earmarks this year. While all this posturing may be good politics it may also be totally moot. The word from folks on the Hill is that House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey (D-WI) has no intention of moving most of the 12 annual appropriations bills forward until after the midterm elections.  The politically popular Defense, Military Construction/Veterans Affairs, and perhaps Homeland Security Department bills are the most likely to actually pass before November.  Obey is staying quiet on the subject for now, hoping to paint Republicans as obstructionists. On the Senate side, Appropriations Committee Chairman Daniel Inouye (D-HI) thinks the House’s efforts are ridiculous, as they essentially give up one of the greatest powers of the Legislative Branch. But there, too, it is unlikely that many of the spending bills will move until after the election.

While all of this earmark action gives lobbyists across DC heartburn, Washington2 Advocates is fortunate in that most of our clients’ federal affairs programs do not rely solely on the earmark process for funding – a smart strategy in these times of earmark instability. And so while we have and will continue to work with our Congressional Delegation to advance our clients’ goals within the regular appropriations process, we also remain focused on identifying alternative sources of federal support.

FINANCIAL REGULATORY REFORMS

With health care finally in the rearview mirror, the focus in Congress on reforming the financial industry has never been greater.  The Senate Banking Committee approved Chairman Chris Dodd’s (D-CT) far-reaching financial industry reform bill (the Restoring American Financial Stability Act) on a party-line vote last month, as expected.  There were no deep policy discussions, no debating the merits of various measures contained in the bill, and – in a risky strategic move – Republicans declined to offer any of the 200 or so amendments they had crafted.  The entire session lasted 21 minutes and was purely a formality, as Dodd has previously stated that negotiations with his Republican counterparts have broken down.  The current plan is to move forward with those negotiations, not in small committee sessions, but instead on the floor of the Senate, where Dodd hopes to bring his bill shortly after Congress returns to session later this month.  

The problem with moving the legislation ahead without any Republican support is that the Senate floor – with its C-SPAN cameras and 100 senators jockeying for the spotlight – is not nearly as conducive to thoughtful debate of complex issues as a committee room populated by members who have studied the bill for months. 

Meanwhile, the President continues to meet with Dodd and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) to discuss ways to merge the two chambers’ bills and pass final legislation before the August recess.  The House passed its version of financial regulatory reform in December. 

While both the House and Senate bills address the same general issues – establishing a system to avoid future taxpayer bailouts of failing financial firms, strengthening consumer protections and instituting new rules for trading derivatives — they differ in many ways, most notably over how to establish a consumer protection agency to oversee financial products.  And Republicans say the Senate bill does nothing to end the problem of “too big to fail” firms, an issue that will have to be hammered out in the coming months.

JOBS BILL(S)

Just before leaving town for Christmas in December, the House passed a jobs bill – or second stimulus – worth $75 billion in new tax credits, unemployment benefits, and infrastructure (“jobs creating”) measures, to be paid for by reductions in TARP borrowing authority.  The vote was 217 to 212, with many moderate Democrats joining the Republicans in opposition in order to avoid the wrath of constituents angry about government spending.  With such a slim margin of passage, and with the election of Republican Scott Brown to Ted Kennedy’s Massachusetts Senate seat in January, the fate of the jobs bill was thrown into question as congressional Democrats were forced to re-evaluate their legislative priorities in a new political landscape. 

Attention turned to the Senate where, in early February, Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) first killed an $85 billion bipartisan jobs bill, then offered a far narrower $15 billion bill that included just four basic provisions:  Build America bonds, a small-business tax program that allows quick expense write-offs, a one-year extension of surface transportation programs and a bipartisan tax-credit deal.  After weeks of negotiations, eventually the Senate produced an $18 billion bill and, in a rare bipartisan achievement, passed the bill (HR 2847) on March 17th (by a vote of 68-29).  The President signed it into law the next day.  The Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment (HIRE) Act is intended to spur employment by providing incentives to hire workers.  At its core is a program that will give companies a break from paying Social Security taxes for the remainder of 2010 on any new workers they hire who had been unemployed for at least 60 days.   In addition, the bill extends federal surface transportation programs through the rest of the year.

On March 24th, the House passed the second measure in the Democrats’ “jobs agenda” – a $16.8 billion package of tax incentives for state and local governments and small businesses aimed at making a dent in unemployment numbers and improving infrastructure. While all but four Republicans voted against the bill (HR 4849), more and more members of both parties seem eager to cater to populist sentiment by passing anything “jobs”-related as their political careers are on the line.  Expect more such measures in the coming months.

CLIMATE LEGISLATION

While health care reform sucked up all the oxygen in Congress in recent months, lead climate negotiators – Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) – continued to meet behind the scenes in an effort to gin up support for cap-and-trade legislation.  The Kerry-Graham-Lieberman proposal that is now emerging is similar to the climate bill that passed the House last June (H.R. 2454) in that it would put a cap on greenhouse gas emission starting in 2012, with the goal of reducing emissions by 17 percent by 2020 and 80 percent by 2050.  But the Senate proposal would put different kinds of limits on different industries, and negotiators are now also considering ways to manage volatility in a carbon market by placing a ceiling and a floor on possible emissions prices (an idea championed by Sen. Maria Cantwell). 

The proposal includes several provisions that are tough for environmentalists to swallow, like expanded oil and gas drilling.  And President Obama in recent weeks has taken a page out of the Bill Clinton “triangulation” playbook by coming out in support of energy policies that the GOP has long fought for.  By supporting expanded offshore oil drilling, nuclear energy, and new coal technology – the so-called “all of the above” approach to energy policy – Obama is essentially daring Republicans to oppose their own agenda. 

The question now is whether or not congressional Democrats have the stomach for another tough vote this year.  But with Republicans projected to pick up seats in the House and Senate in November, Democrats may be looking at 2010 as their last chance to pass a climate bill for the foreseeable future.  Whether or not they can actually move a bill this year is still unknown, but we can expect to see various climate proposals float around the Hill for the next several months. 

IMMIGRATION REFORM

On March 21st – the same day that hordes of tea partiers and other anti-health care reformers protested on the Capitol grounds – thousands of immigration reform advocates staged a major march of their own on the National Mall demanding Congress take quick action on comprehensive immigration legislation.  The march was also directed at President Obama, who made campaign promises to address reform but who has stayed away from the issue since taking office, referencing immigration in just one sentence of his State of the Union Address in January.

Sen. Charles Schumer (D-NY) and Sen. Lindsay Graham (R-SC) last month outlined an immigration legislation plan with four basic elements: create tamper-proof biometric identity cards for all workers to prove they are eligible to work, improve border security and enforcement, create a process for admitting large numbers of temporary workers, and create a way to legalize the estimated 11 million immigrants who are here now illegally.  The President said the plan “should be the basis for moving forward,” and pledged to “do everything in my power to forge a bipartisan consensus this year.”  For now, though, Graham seems to be the only Republican on board and divisions continue to run deep even within the Democratic caucus on the issue of reform. 

From the National Journal’s Hotline OnCall editor (and friend of W2A) Reid Wilson: “Democratic leadership has asked their members to take difficult votes on the stimulus package, cap and trade legislation and health care reform. Bringing up immigration would be another unpopular measure that would almost definitely rile up the conservative base and widen the enthusiasm gap between Republican and Democratic voters. If Democrats bring up immigration reform this year, it would be political malpractice.”

KUDOS TO CLIENTS AND FRIENDS

Congratulations to the Washington State Potato Commission – and a big thanks to Sen. Patty Murray for submitting a request for critical potato research funding to the Senate Appropriations Committee on behalf of the Commission. 

And in the “friends” category, Washington state’s very own Rep. Norm Dicks last month became the Chairman of the powerful Defense Appropriations Subcommittee after serving on the Appropriations Committee since first coming to Congress in 1977.  Rep. Dicks will continue to serve on the Interior and Environment Appropriations Subcommittee, which he had been chairing before the unexpected death of former Defense Chair John Murtha (D-PA) in February.  Congratulations go to Rep. Dicks and his staff for this very big promotion!

TONY’S TAKE – No health care bounce for Dems

Passage of health care reform provided some much needed relief and political momentum for President Obama, but polling done over the last week suggests that congressional Democrats will still face a strong and persistent “head wind” in this November’s elections.

My favorite political website, www.realclearpolitics.com, has several useful benchmarks that highlight the challenge facing Democrats this fall.  RCP averages all polling on various issues and individuals which makes it easier to judge really where the public stands on any given matter.  One poll is helpful but doesn’t provide the perspective that comes with looking at a series of polls.

On health care, the RCP average is 40.4 percent favor the Democrats’ health care bill, and 52.1 oppose it.  One new poll out this weekend from CBS News was even worse for the Democrats.  In that poll, 32 percent favored the new bill and 53 percent opposed it.

As for President Obama’s approval rating, he was stuck around 50 percent approve and 45 disapprove before the bill passed, and he has gone down a bit since he signed health care reform into law.  His RCP approval rating average right now is 47.9 approve and 45.9 disapprove. One year ago, the President’s approval ratings were in the mid-60s and his disapproval was in the high 20s.

As troubling as those numbers are for congressional Democrats, what really has them worried about this fall is that independent voters are turning towards the Republicans. 

Congressional approval ratings, which are notoriously low, just keep going down.  The RCP average right now for Congress is 18.5 approve and 76.2 disapprove.  Those numbers have been dropping throughout the year, and highlights how voters of all stripes have a negative view of Congress.  One year ago, these numbers weren’t good – congressional job approval was in the upper 30s and disapproval was in the 50s – but, in comparison, those numbers are still dramatically better than where they stand today.

But the big disturbing number for members is what’s called the “generic ballot test.”  This question asks voters which party they intend to vote for in the coming congressional elections.  Those numbers strongly favored Democrats in the months leading up to the 2006 and 2008 elections, and we saw what happened.  Those numbers are now in favor of the Republicans, and while the margin is small (the RCP average on the generic ballot test is 45.6 Republican and 43.3 Democratic), the trend lines are strongly in the R’s favor.  A year ago, Democrats still led on this question by three to five points, and prior to the 2008 elections, they led by 10+ points.

I chalk this shift in voter attitudes up to three things:  voters like divided government (expect to hear a lot about that subject from Republican campaigns this fall), voters are worried about the size and scope of the Obama proposals, and voters are really nervous about the economy and their perceived lack of attention paid to that issue by the Congress.

For now, the Democrats are fortunate that the election is still several months away, and when Congress comes back into session next week, you can expect a flurry of proposals that are designed to help grow the economy and spur job growth.  Also, the improving economy should provide some hope for Democrats this fall – if the economy continues to improve, the stock market keeps rising, and unemployment keeps going doing down, that will help the Democrats hold down their losses.

At this point, I’m not sure how many Senate and House seats the Republicans will win this fall, and whether they can take back the House majority from the Democrats.  While voters are indicating that they plan to vote Republican this fall, I think that represents a shift away from the Democrats vs. a shift towards Republicans.

There is still time for the Democrats to avoid an absolute bloodbath this fall, and given their performance of the last several years, there is still plenty of time for the Republicans to have a significant mess up that prevents greater success for them this fall.  Still, right now, the signs point toward big Republican victories.

END 

W2A Update - January 15, 2010

Happy New Year! From the entire team at W2A, we wish everyone a happy, healthy, and successful 2010.

Our last report to you was at the end of October, 2009. November and December didn’t produce much in Congress that wasn’t covered by nearly every major media outlet, and because votes actually occurred in the U.S. Senate on Christmas Eve, we decided to wait until the New Year to produce another W2A Update.

D.C. LEGISLATIVE UPDATE

The House kicked off the second session of the 111th Congress this week, and the Senate will convene next week. Here are the 2010 House and the 2010 Senate calendars. Although Democrat and Republican retreats over the next two weeks would suggest a light start to this Congress, the agenda for 2010 is anything but light.

In addition to completing work on historic health care reform, House and Senate Democrats hope to focus on the economy as soon as possible. But a very stacked agenda may prove to be the biggest obstacle to quick action addressing jobs and unemployment. Issues such as national security and terrorism, financial services reform, climate change, the war in Afghanistan, and immigration reform, to say the least, will all remain high priorities for this session.

Below are our thoughts on the big issues before Congress this year – where the debates stand now and where we think they will go in 2010.

HEALTH CARE REFORM

The reason, of course, that the U.S. Senate was voting on Christmas Eve was health care. While probably most of America was trying to get a turkey or roast in the oven on time, the Senate moved to address the long-awaited health care reform legislation with little room to spare.

Since that time, leaders in both the House and Senate have been considering how to reconcile two very different bills with the White House in hopes of completing work on the issue before President Obama’s State of the Union address. Instead of the customary process of establishing a House-Senate conference committee on the bill, leaders are in the process of negotiating a final bill amongst a handful of elected officials and the White House. This proposition, naturally, has stirred up all sorts of political mudslinging as Republicans have cried foul for being locked-out of the process, and many interested Democrats are also unhappy. These discussions are just underway, so stay tuned.

APPROPRIATIONS AND JOBS FOR MAIN STREET/STIMULUS II

ll the regular FY10 appropriations bills were completed by year-end as the Transportation-HUD, Financial Services, Labor-HHS, MilCon-VA, and State Foreign Ops bills were rolled into HR 3288, the Consolidated Appropriations Act for 2010. Even as the second session of the 111th Congress gets underway, House and Senate offices are putting the final tweaks on, and in some cases, have already released their forms for FY11 appropriations requests.

In addition to the regularly funded appropriations bills, the House also passed what has been referred to both as the Jobs for Main Street Act and/or Stimulus II. On a very slim margin, the bill passed the House on December 16th by a vote of 217-212.

The bill passed with much less fanfare than its older sibling. This is in part because the vote was so close to the holidays (and so close in and of itself), and in part because that there is some debate over whether the redirection of $75 billion in unspent TARP funds used to pay for the legislation really “costs” the Treasury. The bill was reviewed by the Congressional Budget Office since its passage, and depending upon value assumptions on unspent TARP funds, the legislation either increases total deficits by $64.9 billion over ten years, or $139.9 billion over ten years.

With such little bi-partisan support, and with even questionable Democrat support, there is speculation that the Senate will either wait to see a formal request from the White House (a.k.a. look for something associated with the President’s FY11 Budget request), or could consider attaching a “stimulus” package onto a supplemental request for additional funds for Afghanistan. With Republicans more likely to support the latter, and Democrats the former, this is one mechanism leadership could use to pass Jobs for Main Street/Stimulus II.

ENERGY REFORM/CAP AND TRADE

Also since our last report, the United States participated in the long-awaited climate change summit in Copenhagen. Depending on who you talk to, the conference was either a great “first step”, or it was a “do nothing” event. While at the summit, the U.S. committed to help mobilize $100 billion in annual funding by 2020 to help poor countries cope with global warming. At the same time, however, the ultimate goal of forging a world-wide consensus approach to climate change was not achieved.

While there has been no movement on climate legislation in Congress, only days before the Copenhagen summit commenced, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced its endangerment finding on greenhouse gases. This was followed by EPA’s proposal to increase smog standards that was introduced just last week. Additionally, at least a handful of other federal agencies including the Departments of Transportation, Interior, Housing and Urban Development, the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Council on Environmental Quality are working to follow-through on a government-wide strategy to curb climate change through the rulemaking and regulatory processes.

Again, with so many close votes on hotly debated issues, we anticipate clunky attention in the Senate on climate change this year, but instead, predict activity will continue to occur (and even increase) at the regulatory level. Keep in mind, though, that because the Senate moved energy related legislation in two separate bills, it’s possible the “low hanging fruit” in the Senate Energy and Natural Resource’s American Clean Energy Leadership Act could find its way to the Senate floor this year.

FINANCIAL REGULATORY REFORMS

Senate Banking Committee Chairman Chris Dodd (D-CT) surprised Washington, D.C. last week by announcing his retirement at the end of the year. How his decision will affect the landscape for financial regulatory reform in the Senate is still unknown. Some speculate that it will free Dodd from concerns about pleasing his left-leaning base back home and will result in a more industry-friendly bill. The Consumer Financial Protection Agency – a key piece of the legislation favored by the White House and by House Financial Services Chairman Barney Frank (D-MA) – may be the first thing to go as Dodd and his committee members meet this month to craft a final bill. Scrapping the new agency will come with conditions, however, as Dodd is apparently asking Republicans to support beefing-up a consumer protection office within another agency.

The House passed its version of financial regulatory reform in December. The President had wanted a bill on his desk before his yet unscheduled State of the Union address, though this is looking unlikely. A source close to the committee has said that “February is for talking and March is for paper,” according to Politico. Democrats will ultimately have to push something through conference before the August recess so they’ll have a populist win to campaign on over the summer.

TRANSPORTATION

Progress on an extension of the federal surface transportation programs (highways, transit, etc.) is bogged down by election-year politics and an overcrowded floor schedule.

While House Transportation and Infrastructure Committee Chairman Jim Oberstar (D-MN) pushed hard last year to move quickly on a long-term authorization bill, he has since backed off and has signaled a willingness to pass shorter-term program extensions. Spending authority for Highway Trust Fund programs is currently set to expire at the end of September 2010, and Hill staff tell us not to expect a long-term bill until 2011. In the meantime, any other short-term extensions will undoubtedly be “clean” of earmarked projects. States, cities and transit agencies across the country that were counting on those earmarks are now turning their focus toward the new Jobs for Main Street/Stimulus II that Democrats are pushing forward as it would contain funding for infrastructure projects. Though, again, the future of that legislation is murky, too.

TONY’S TAKE – The Political Pendulum Has Officially Swung

For the first time since August 2005, Republicans in Washington, D.C. are having fun again.

That’s the take-away from my just-completed trip to Washington, D.C. this week. While the news from Haiti brought a healthy dose of sober reality back to our nation’s capital, the top political news continues to be the Democrats’ rapid descent. Just preceding, and then during my trip to Washington, D.C., the following things happened:

· Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid struggled to manage four political challenges all at the same time: his “poor choice of words” about President Obama’s skin tone and speaking style, his faltering poll numbers (two polls out this week have him trailing his little-known challengers by 10+ points), two front page national news stories about the impact that his political trouble involving his son’s campaign for Nevada Governor (two Reids on the Nevada ballot in 2010 is apparently not going to be a good thing), and the ongoing struggles the Democrats have in completing a health care bill. So far, 2010 has not been fun or kind to Senator Reid and his staff.

· The special Senate election next week in Massachusetts to fill Ted Kennedy’s seat is suddenly in doubt as polls showed the race to be a dead heat, and both parties suddenly dumped millions of dollars into the Bay State for the final week of the election. The unexpected closeness of the race already has Republicans crowing, and while most observers expect the Democratic candidate to eke things out in the end, it is pretty extraordinary that this race is even remotely close given the politics of Massachusetts.

· President Obama’s approval rating continues to slide and was under 50 percent in a whole host of polls released this week. The constant downward creep in the President’s job approval ratings only makes it more difficult for Democratic Members of Congress to keep their own jobs.

· Democratic retirements in Congress continue to cloud an already cloudy forecast for Democrats in the 2010 elections. Senators Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Byron Dorgan of North Dakota both opted to retire than lose this year, and rumors abound that more House retirements could be coming in the next few weeks.

· Finally, there was some good news for the Democrats in all this bad news. The Dodd retirement actually dramatically improves their chances of keeping his seat this fall because the popular Connecticut Attorney General can now run. Still, when the best news you’ve got is turning a lemon into lemonade, you know it’s been a tough week.

So, with this as a start to 2010, what does it mean for the rest of the year? Unfortunately, for all of us who were hoping that this year would feature much less drama than either 2008 or 2009, it appears to me that we’re probably going to be disappointed.

This year is just two weeks old, and the amount of surprising news seems over-the-top. Whether it’s the impossible-to-process news from Haiti, the reality that terrorism is on the rise and our government is still struggling with how to share national security intelligence amongst various agencies, the crazy Jim Mora-Pete Carroll-Lane Kiffin coaching carousel, unemployment stuck at 10+ percent, the new reality of $1+ trillion annual federal deficits, or the aggressive action taken upon Google by the Chinese government, it seems pretty clear to me that this year is going to be another one that stretches our ability to define what “normal” is and should be for American families.

For families and business owners, we will do what we always do – continue to circle the wagons, focus on our core values and talents, and work hard to get through these challenging times. Here at W2A, we feel very fortunate to be heading into 2010 in a strong position – we had 100 percent retention with our existing clients (thank you everyone!), and we have added six new clients over the last two months. As always, but even more so in these troubling times, we feel blessed by your faith in our work, and your support of our business and families.

For the political world, this year looks very uncertain indeed, and I think that uncertainty extends to both parties, not just the Democrats.

To be certain, the Democrats face a very difficult year in 2010. There is a very real possibility that the Republicans will take back the majority in the House of Representatives. A year ago, that possibility seemed beyond preposterous, and now it seems a 50-50 possibility. On the Senate side, the Democrats face a loss of several seats this fall. While their majority still appears safe after November, it is quite possible that they will go from the 60 seats they have now to 55 or less seats following this year’s elections.

For incumbent Republicans, my counsel would be to temper your giddiness over the falling fortunes of the Democrats, and keep a close eye on potential primary challenges. The “tea party” Republicans preparing to run in 2010 are drawing their first arrows upon Republicans in the form of primary challenges to GOP congressional incumbents, and if ever an election year seemed poised to create opportunities for independent candidates in select congressional districts, 2010 would be that year.

All of these new political realities mean that the legislative outlook for this year is very cloudy. Every big ticket item from health care to climate change to a second stimulus bill faces a difficult road to completion. Of course, there will be plenty of other action this year that will find success, but it will be “kitchen work.” Appropriations bills will be passed; efforts to ease unemployment will be produced and pushed; regulations will continue to be created, revised and enforced; and elected officials will work hard to be visible on regional issues.

And, in November, we will have what will be another hard-fought, and quite possibly, historic, election.

In other words, it’s going to be a busy year in the world of government and public affairs, and a very unpredictable one, too.

END